The Relationship Between Sociotropic and Pocketbook Economic Evaluations and Vote Choice in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Name: Madeline Chang

Zoom Link: https://wesleyan.zoom.us/j/94448369146

Maddie Chang

Maddie Chang is a sophomore at Wesleyan University from Providence, Rhode Island. She is a double major in Economics and Government, as well as a member of the women’s lacrosse team. She is also interested in working in the financial services industry. Outside of the classroom Maddie loves to travel and go to the beach.

Abstract: This project focuses on the relationship between economic evaluations and vote choice in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, specifically sociotropic (perceptions of the national economy) and pocketbook evaluations (personal financial concerns). Using data from the ANES 2024 Time Series Study, linear logistic regression models were used to examine the effects of such evaluations on support for Trump. Results showed that sociotropic evaluations were a stronger predictor of votes in favor of Trump than pocketbook evaluations. In addition, party identification appeared to be significantly impactful on vote choice suggesting that economic perceptions may be influenced by partisan preferences. These findings highlight the importance of further investigating the role that economic evaluations and partisanship play in contemporary U.S. elections.

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